Comprehensive and expert analysis “Perspectives for the War in Ukraine” provided by Ambassador Thomas Greminger, the Executive Director of the Geneva Centre for Security Policy. Previously serving as the Secretary General of the OSCE.

Ambassador Thomas Greminger’s policy brief on the War in Ukraine provides a comprehensive and insightful analysis of the ongoing War, highlighting its context, evolving phases, and potential future scenarios. The article delves into the complexities of the conflict, considering both military and diplomatic perspectives. In this review, we will discuss key points from the policy brief, examining the five identified phases of the war, potential scenarios for its resolution, and the critical role of negotiated settlements.

The policy brief outlines five distinct phases of the conflict, from the initial invasion in February 2022 to the present stalemate. Greminger expertly navigates through the military dynamics, pointing out strategic advancements and territorial control by both Ukrainian and Russian forces. By categorising the conflict into phases, the article provides a structured understanding of its evolution and sets the stage for assessing potential future developments.

The author presents five plausible scenarios for the resolution of the conflict, ranging from continued high-intensity warfare to negotiated ceasefires and potential escalation. Greminger’s analysis recognises the challenges of predicting the war’s trajectory, emphasising the need for careful consideration of diverse outcomes.

A significant portion of the analysis is dedicated to the concept of “Plan B” thinking – exploring scenarios beyond the official narratives of military victory. Greminger highlights the importance of returning to the negotiation table, especially considering the losses the war has taken. The author cites experts advocating for a two-pronged approach, bolstering Ukraine’s military capacity while preparing for a potential settlement.

The policy brief delves into the intricacies of settlement negotiations, addressing territorial issues, reparations, accountability for war crimes, minority rights, and sanctions relief. Particularly noteworthy is the exploration of security guarantees. Greminger adeptly outlines the challenges and potential compromises, emphasising the necessity of addressing the security dilemma to make progress on other contentious topics.

Ambassador Thomas Greminger’s policy brief provides a thorough and insightful examination of the War in Ukraine, offering a valuable resource for policymakers, analysts, and the general public. The author’s balanced approach, acknowledgment of uncertainties, and emphasis on diplomatic solutions contribute to the credibility of the analysis. As the War continues to evolve, Greminger’s perspectives offer a foundation for ongoing discussions and policy considerations.